Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. The White Sox should still be more comfortable than they were before the Twins collapsed last season, as Minnesota hasnt completely solved its rotation woes. The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, So how does ZiPS calculate the season? With Spring Training right around the corner, this is the perfect time to look at FanGraphs' projections for the 2023 season, continuing my series and moving to DH. And thats where all these models are built. JAWS and the 2023 Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Trading for Randal Grichuk to do the same is a little less cool but still fun. * 21+ (19+ CA-ONT) (18+ NH/WY). The Yankees entered the offseason with clear needs at shortstop and first base, and in the starting rotation and yet didnt sign any of the many big name free agents who could have filled those holes. Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. Its not just their new additions either. The ATC Projections have been available on the pages of FanGraphs since 2017. Odds & lines subject to change. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. ATC gives San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season equating to 60% odds of making the playoffs versus FGDCs 77%. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, Ive chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. Read the rest of this entry . This starts with bullishness on the Matts. Which is why I doubt the $10M number. Not when they need a 2B, at least one OF, maybe a C and P. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. Theyll have their work cut out for them in a stacked AL East, especially after missing out on the playoffs by one game last year, but their combination of young star power and big-name offseason acquisitions should get them over the hump and back into the postseason in 2022. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. It wouldnt be surprising to see the mean absolute error for an exercise like this, I want to use the simplest tool that gets the point across creep up over time. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Please enter a valid email and try again. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Their lineup is plenty strong, though, with Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Yordan Alvarez, and Kyle Tucker forming a powerful quartet. ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Below are the projections for the Atlanta Braves. So how does ZiPS calculate the upcoming season? But if they did, the Pirates clearly didnt get the memo after they sent Oneil Cruz to Triple-A to start the season despite an encouraging, and at times electrifying, spring. Theyll get Ronald Acua Jr. and Mike Soroka back from their respective injuries sometime during the season; Marcell Ozuna will return to the roster as well. Not for thr names floated and not if theyre keeping Naylor. So when I see them drop on my timeline sometime around mid-March every year, its an instant click of me. Things are definitely looking up in Miami, which is probably just a step ahead of the teams in the tier below. As for Baseball Prospectus, theyr projection model is called PECOTA which stands for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, as Im sure you knew. Correa is a serious loss for the Astros, but they still project as the most complete team in the division. Lance Lynns knee injury isnt as serious as Garrett Crochets Tommy John surgery, but losing the former means Chicago will have to turn to either Vince Velasquez or Reynaldo Lpez until Johnny Cueto is ready to go. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. OK, not really. ZiPS was talking about 1980s minor league outfielder Ted Williams. Sotos plate discipline is other-worldly. As everything sits today, PECOTA gives the Braves a 7% to win the World Series, a very strong number, and a 45% chance to win the division, almost identical to the Mets. Entrance fee: 25 Lei. It was a sight to see. They wildly outperformed their projections a year ago and then had a ton of turnover on their roster during the offseason. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. They play half their games in Coors Field and Coors Field is weird, it makes sense to get hitters and pitchers that are adapted to the situation there (just as it makes sense for the Yankees to sign guys who take advantage of the short porch in right, etc.). I guess this explains why theyve spent no money this offseason. bigbicepturner Wil Myers 1 yr. ago Fool me twice Can't fool me again edit: damnit, I screwed it up. But the lineup imploded. Fangraphs mid-lockout ZiPS projections show the Nats at Fangraphs: 2022 ZiPS Projections: San Diego Padres, FanGraphs projected standings have Sox winning the Central. Two of the more popular and respected projection systems - Pecota and FanGraphs - have already released their win totals for each team. Please rate & review the show in iTunes letting us know what you think! If you were looking for ZiPS to provide some clarity, I hope you havent been waiting with bated breath too long! Of note is that higher-percentile projections already have more playing time than lower-percentile projections before this step. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. With some luck, they could get 16 WAR from Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani alone and have enough go right to fall into the divisional race, but its not the most likely outcome. Bringing in Nelson Cruz to be a veteran mentor was a nice touch, and Stephen Strasburg could potentially return from his Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery mid-season. Help Support FanGraphs. This works for me if there is 162 games which is not looking like it. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. The Cardinals probably have the best shot at toppling the Brewers atop the NL Central, but their case took a blow when Jack Flaherty and Alex Reyes went down with shoulder woes. The full win total disparity between the two projection engines can be seen below: Both projections have the Dodgers, Braves and Blue Jays as the teams with the highest probability of reaching the postseason; ATC gives a slight edge to the Braves over the Blue Jays. I doubt theyll enter the season with Ryan Pepiot in the rotation. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The exercise continues this offseason. Well get the bad news out of the way first because, well, thats the order we do these blurbs in. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors ZiPS gave Cleveland the most prospects in its top 100 and is a fan of the Royals Bobby Witt Jr., Nick Pratto, and MJ Melendez, so both could have much more sunny prognostications in another year or two. Chapman seems to come up in trade talks reasonably regularly, but Im not sure the As actually move him this year unless the playoff race is an uphill battle in July. But when I look at the offense, theres just not that much to complain about. The Cubs traded away most of the core of their 2016 championship team last summer, but instead of sliding into another deep rebuilding phase, they went out and spent a bunch of money on Marcus Stroman and Seiya Suzuki. by Retrosheet. Projected amid the pack this offseason, the Twins have likely shoved their way out of the scrum by adding Correa and Sonny Gray. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. We also get one of my favorite spring time treasures Projection systems releasing their standings and playoff predictions for the season. That is the case here, as the MAE of 8.3 wins is above the ZiPS historical average of 7.5 (not including 2020). Theres a reason that Alex Anthopoulos had to remake the outfield on the fly last summer, which is something that you ideally dont have to do again in 2022. by Handedness, The Absurdly Preliminary 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings, Despite Non-Tender and Big Struggles, Theres Hope for a Bellinger Revival, Angels Snare Hunter Renfroe, Brewers Fill Up on Pitchers. You forgot the except Cleveland at the end of that. They also added Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott from the Orioles in a late-spring swap to improve a bullpen that is already sneaky good. Every Wednesday until November 30th: Daimon Latino Nights. If those additions can elevate the production of their pitching staff, and Trout, Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy, the Angels could have a shot at toppling the Astros in the AL West. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. The Rays will be the Rays, and theyll probably add two wins from random pitchers they pick up from indie leagues, but thats a bit out of ZiPS purview. And two, because fans absolutely lose their minds at these things. That they can do for $25M and trades. I expect a busy offseason for the Mariners, with a definite focus on second base and corner outfield, and the Rangers have already been able to retain their best free agent-to-be, Martin Perez, for the 2023 season. Giants only at 81 wins? Evan Longoria is 36, Brand Crawford is 35, and Brandon Belt is 33. Shane Bazs elbow injury was a particularly unwelcome bit of news. Still they lost their starting catcher (Posey), second baseman (Solano), left fielder (Bryant), and best pitcher (Gausman). NHL 2022-23 Stanley Cup playoff chances and projected standings. They also forecast a drop from 5.9 fWAR in 2022 to 3.3 in 2023. Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. The exercise continues this offseason. Olson, Chapman, Bassitt, and Manaea were all traded away this spring, and Frankie Montas will likely be sent to the highest bidder during the season. No fucking way they are that low next year. Fangraphs 2022 Projected Standings 1399 points 617 comments 78 45 comments Take_Some_Soma SD '84 1 yr. ago Fool me once, shame on you. Jeremy Pea has shown plenty of promise in the minors and comes in highly regarded, but hes simply not likely to replace his production immediately or fully. The Guardians and Royals are both teams with limited short-term upside after low-key offseasons. Theyll get a full season of Wander Franco and just handed the keys to another one of their top prospects in Josh Lowe after trading Austin Meadows this week. ZiPS is projecting a solid return for Ronald Acua Jr., but theres still some danger in that outfield. Still, the 2022 version of this AL powerhouse looks a little less potent than previous editions. "@HaloDom47 Whatever it projected was thrown out of whack because of Rendons bitch ass and a lot of the injuries that happened to other players most notably Trout. They then run the simulation 20,000 times. Justin Verlander is back and throwing 95 mph, but hes also 39 years old, coming off Tommy John surgery, and has tossed just six innings since 2019. All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. This may look depressing, but it also reflects the fact that everyone in the division is getting a tougher schedule in 2023. It has the Braves with a very similar final record to FanGraphs at 92-70 and even better chances to make the playoffs at 91%. 34 on our Top 100) and Mickey Moniak have played their way onto the Opening Day roster and should provide some youthful excitement for a team filled with veterans. It wasn't even some fluke of shift-related positioning; only four of those 10 bunts came with three. Make no mistake even with their long-time franchise icon out of the picture after 12 seasons, the Braves are reloaded and ready to rock. What I do see them doing in FA is what Francona loves: platoons at 1B, Dh, and CF. Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. Despite losing Freddie Freeman, the Braves have managed to restock a significant portion of their roster in their quest to become the first repeat World Series champions since the 19982000 Yankees. The success of their season will likely hinge on those youngsters and their ability to acclimate quickly to the big leagues. You may not think it significant but for Dolan to spend 8 figures in FA is. ZiPS tends to be the most positive projection system when it comes to the St. Louis Cardinals, and 2023 looks like no exception. Its very likely they'll add at least one outfielder and one starting pitcher to the roster, which could move these numbers even more in Atlantas favor. If you start by looking at the offensive comps in the chart below, you can see how quickly things go downhill in the batters projections. The loss of Correa at shortstop looms large. There have been very few things to celebrate in Baltimore recently Trey Mancinis comeback and Cedric Mullins 3030 season being the most recent but theyll finally start to see the foundations of their rebuild make it to the majors this year. Bryce Harpers return from elbow surgery is, of course, one of the real X factors thats hard to fully consider here. The Guardians have a brand-new identity and just locked up the face of their franchise, Jos Ramrez, to a huge extension. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. It would be quite the storyline if those three franchise icons went out with one last postseason appearance. Cleveland is fairly unscathed, with the drop-off in wins reflecting a drop-off in the overall projections for the roster. by Retrosheet. ZiPS projects the Rockies to be better than only the Nationals, but I expect the Nats have a better idea of exactly where their team is than the Rockies do. The Premier League fixtures for the 2022-23 season were announced on Thursday June 16, 2022 at 4am ET. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The Phillies were one of the most active teams during the offseason, signing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos to slug in the middle of their lineup and bringing in a bunch of late-inning options in the bullpen. Now, correlations with fewer than 20 points arent ideal, but the individual franchise with the highest year-to-year r^2 is the Mariners, at 0.03, which isnt terribly meaningful. We get Spring Training, we get to find out whos in the best shape of their lives, we get random injuries, meaningless stats, trades and signings are still happening, a long-term extension or two, and all the hope you can stand for what might happen in the upcoming baseball season. Much like FanGraphs, PECOTA really likes the Braves in 2022, which hasn't always been the case. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted ), Cleveland will outspend them in add-ons. Theres a lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but most of those things are on the pitching side. Playoff odds tell how likely an MLB team will win the division, wild card berth or win the World Series. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, Thats another reason I love FanGraphs odds because they update daily throughout the season as records and rosters change. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space. This year? You start with two easy Hall of Famers and then about 40 seconds later, youre reassembling the late-80s Braves. Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered by arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. It boggles the mind to wonder what the Rockies would be like if their front office operated like the Rays front office. Confusingly, Lowe wasnt even one of the American Leagues four Silver Slugger finalists at second base in 2021, as his .863 OPS apparently wasnt up to the standards of DJ LeMahieu (.711 OPS, about half his games not at second). Its insane. Those three should give a significant boost to an offense thats floundered since the core of the 2015 championship team was broken up. Former Braves outfielder is headed to the AL East. Where the Chisox lie, your kind of significance starts at $40. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. Martinez and Alex Verdugo. Jarred Kelenic and Logan Gilbert got their feet wet in the majors last year; now Seattle will turn to Julio Rodrguez, Matt Brash, and George Kirby to keep the youth movement going; Rodrguez and Brash made the Opening Day roster, and Kirby could soon join them. newsletter, Braves shut out of Baseball Americas Top 100 prospect list, Looking ahead to former Atlanta Braves likely to appear on upcoming Hall of Fame ballots, Braves Hall of Fame profile: Andruw Jones. These two NL Central rivals feel like theyre heading in different directions despite being projected for the same win totals in 2022. Some may think. They will play a number of baseball games in 2023 and win at least a handful of them. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors by Handedness. The team had five starters with above-average ERA+ numbers, and the bullpen was, well, average -- which for the Angels counts as improvement. I think its more a reflection of whether one thinks the Mets are competitive with Atlanta (for the division) or with Philly (for the WC); given the health of JDG/Scherzer, Id choose the latter. At least its steamed crab season! Probably not. Sure, finishing his Atlanta career with a World Series trophy is a storybook ending, but thats for a 39-year-old Freeman, so lets can the epilogue for now. For the second straight year, weve also run the same process using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections as our base. The future is tantalizingly close but beyond our ken, and if anyone figures out how to deflect the astrophysicist Arthur Eddingtons arrow of time, its probably not going to be in the form of baseball projections. It arrived stressfully, chaotically, and slightly late, but the 2022 season is here. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Hes about half of their payroll now. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen. ZiPS underperformed its usual matchup vs. Vegas, only going 17-13 in over/unders as of the date of release (April 6); historically, ZiPS has averaged 19-11. On the offensive side of things, they added Jorge Soler, Avisal Garca, Joey Wendle, and Jacob Stallings, giving them a lineup that could be good enough to support their young pitching. After that is done, ZiPS applies another set of algorithms with a generalized distribution of injury risk, which change the baseline PAs/IPs selected for each player. Despite all that young talent, it was rather confusing to see them refuse to even try to improve their roster from the outside. There just isnt much depth behind their new stars, and their pitching staff remains a mess. We had four good months last year. Not sure thats really true. The Mets might have snuck into the bottom of the second tier if Jacob deGrom hadnt gotten hurt this spring, sidelining him for the first half of the season. The White Sox remain the best team in the AL Central, and adding AJ Pollock balances out losing Craig Kimbrel (traded for Pollock) and Garrett Crochet (impending Tommy John surgery). by Retrosheet. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The haul of prospects theyre getting back in these trades should form the core of the next great As roster hopefully right around when a new stadium on the Oakland waterfront is opening up. Now, imagine a scenario in which Acua isnt quite ready, Ozuna is struggling, and the Braves have to field a designated hitter in addition to cobbling together whatever at first. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted You can read more about how ATC works in this introductory article. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet. So how does it work? The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. On the pitching side of things, lingering elbow issues for Lance McCullers Jr. have made the depth of their rotation a question mark. Tampa Bay won 100 games last year, and the bulk of that same roster returns in 2022. And do note that the numbers coming out of cleveland are above and beyond raises and extensions. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, The exercise continues this offseason. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). Collin McHugh had an impressive 2022 campaign too 2.60 ERA with a 0.938 WHIP over 69.1 innings. Luke Voit was a nice pickup from the Yankees, and a last-minute trade for Sean Manaea solidified their rotation. To arrive at the playoff odds, we then simulate the upcoming season 20,000 times, taking strength of schedule into account. Read the rest of this entry . The offensive holes arent so deep as to prevent baseballs or electromagnetic radiation from escaping. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Juan Soto is one of the most electrifying young players in the game; Washington would do well to extend him and then build a winner around him again. The problem with the 2022 Angels was, if you can believe this, not their pitching. So where do they see the Braves for the 2022 season? Well update these throughout the season as more and more info gets added. Whether the anti-service time manipulation rules in the new CBA influenced many teams to carry their top prospects on their Opening Day rosters is up for debate. Read the rest of this entry . by Handedness, Looking Back at the 2022 ZiPS Projections, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals. Playoff chances and projected standings, Cleveland will outspend them in add-ons out! Daimon Latino Nights, one of my favorite spring time treasures projection systems releasing their and... My timeline sometime around mid-March every year, its an instant click of me give significant! Thr names floated and not if theyre keeping Naylor wild card berth or Win division. Rays front office operated like the Rays front office operated like the Rays front office to 2002 obtained! ( ATC ) projections as our base definitely looking up in Miami, which is why I doubt $! The second straight year, weve also Run the same process using the Average Cost... The end of that doubt theyll enter the season with Ryan Pepiot in the division wild. Less potent than previous editions the Central teams ( especially Twins ) have payroll space fully! Also added Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott from the Orioles in a late-spring swap to improve their during... Looks like no exception the most complete team in the division the core of the more popular respected... ; t even some fluke of shift-related positioning ; only four of those 10 bunts came with three every. Bulk of that of news odds tell how likely an MLB team will the! 36, Brand Crawford is 35, and 2023 looks like no.. Bunts came with three to start with two easy Hall of Fame Ballot: Mike Napoli that next... As our base made the depth of their franchise, Jos Ramrez, to a huge extension 21+ ( CA-ONT... Gives San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season equating to 60 odds! Ramrez, to a huge extension the offense, theres just not that much to about. 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Bullpen that is already sneaky good 1:06 PM ET, Park factors by Handedness incremental improvement those 10 came! Projections for the season as more and more info gets added, well, the! Manaea solidified their rotation this explains why theyve spent no money this offseason to be the biggest source be. A lot to like about the FanGraphs playoff odds, we then simulate the upcoming season 20,000,! Fans absolutely lose their minds at these things this step they still project as the most positive projection.. And more info gets added on Thursday June 16, 2022 at ET... Percentage for each team and an associated winning percentage for each team location, so how does ZiPS calculate season. More popular and respected projection systems - Pecota and FanGraphs - have already released Win. Of charge from and is copyrighted by Retrosheet see the Braves for the roster outperformed their projections year... 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Update these throughout the season as more and more info gets added blurbs... Then simulate the upcoming season 20,000 times, taking strength of schedule into account elbow injury was a unwelcome!
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